Argentina’s World Cup triumph in December 2022 prompted a predictable outpouring of national joy. But, the feeling was to be short-lived as the country reels from a devastating drought that is exacerbating one of the country’s periodic economic crises.
The inflation rate is over 100%. The economy is flatlining. More than a third of the country is in poverty. Talks are ongoing to restructure the country’s $44bn IMF bailout. Meanwhile, approval of the Peronist government is barely in double digits.
Against this backdrop, Argentina prepares to go to the polls. On August 13th, all potential candidates will participate in a single, national primary election that will winnow down the field to a single standard-bearer for each party or electoral coalition. The first round of the Presidential election proper will take place on October 22nd. Current President, Alberto Fernández, announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election.
Even though the country’s economy has been in something of a tailspin, it’s Economy Minister, Sergio Massa, appears best-placed to emerge as leader of the Peronist Frente de Todos coalition. It is nearly fifty years since Juan Domingo Perón died in office, but the popular movement he founded and led still bears his name and dominates the left of Argentine politics.
Peronism has long been riven by factions. Former two-time President – and current Vice-President – Cristina Fernández de Kirchner remains the single most powerful Peronist politician and represents its left-leaning factions. Sergio Massa, however, is more closely aligned with conservative factions – and the current President – and has been busy cutting government spending to tackle inflation. Since failure to present a united front could have further narrowed their potential path to victory, the President and Vice-President agreed to row in behind Massa as a unity candidate.
Three months out from the election, it is the centre-right opposition coalition, Juntos por el Cambio, that looks to be in pole position to recapture the Presidency. Former security Minister, Patricia Bullrich, and Mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, are locked in a close battle ahead of the August primary, which should see one of them emerge as frontrunner ahead of October’s vote. These two candidates are associated, respectively, with the hardline and moderate centre-right camps.
Despite the dire economic situation and weak government approval ratings, it will be far from plain sailing for the opposition, however. Peronism can still count on bedrock support among about a third of voters. In a fractured field, this could be sufficient at least to reach a second-round run-off.
In fact, polling suggests support is split three ways. Javier Milei, a charismatic and populist libertarian, has risen to prominence by castigating both the Peronists and the centre-right as being part of the same, corrupt ‘political caste’. Although he will not be able count on the deep political organization of other leading candidates – this is, after all, part of his appeal – he has nonetheless forced himself into the reckoning. Opinion polls put him within striking distance of placing second in October and forcing a run-off. In that event, it is far from inconceivable that supporters of the centre-right would rally behind Milei to shut out the Peronist, assuming the latter is a second round contestant.
A Milei victory would represent something of a national experiment: not only does he come from outside the traditional political duopoly, his policy programme is one of radical free market fundamentalism. He proposes slashing public spending, abolishing the central bank and unilaterally adopting the U.S. dollar. Whoever emerges as the new President later this year, it seems the best the people of Argentina can expect is more austerity under the guise of the IMF programme, albeit that President’s political inclinations may be decisive in the programme’s renegotiation. A shift to the left is not on the cards.
vicduggan 