Category Archives: Articles for SIPTU’s Liberty

The Psychology of Taxation

“Death, taxes and childbirth! There’s never a convenient time for them.” – Margaret Mitchell, Gone with the Wind, 1936

It is hardly controversial to suggest that rational people prefer to pay less tax rather than more, assuming all else is equal. If one follows the public debate in Ireland, however, it soon becomes clear that rationality is not universal on fiscal matters.

As the government struggles to bring the budget deficit under control, and as we are in a phase of increasing rather than stable or falling taxes, this is all the more pertinent. What is at issue, from the government’s perspective, is how to distribute and minimize citizens’ inevitable displeasure at rising taxes.

All taxes are not created equal, it would appear. What you pay tax on, and how you pay it, seems to matter a great deal,  perhaps even more so than the extent to which taxes hit our pockets. Continue reading

’13: Another Year of Living Dangerously?

We saw the first ripples of the US sub-prime crisis in the summer of 2007. A year later, the global economy was on the precipice of disaster. Only resolute action by world leaders, Gordon Brown not least among them, and coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus prevented a re-run of the Great Depression.

Cracks in the Eurozone edifice which had been papered over during the good times were soon brutally exposed. As the crisis enters its seventh calendar year, we are more than half way through a lost decade. The question, particularly on Europe’s periphery is whether one lost decade will turn into two.

2013 promises to be yet another momentous year in Irish economic history; the year Ireland hopes to cease being a ward of the troika; a year plagued with potential banana skins. Without doubt, the fallout from yet another hair-shirt budget will dominate the early months of the year. It follows that we will face into a similarly challenging budget cycle as 2013 draws to a close. Like peeling an apple, the closer you get to the core, the more the pips squeak. Budgets will only get harder. Continue reading

Whose Debt is it anyway??

When Europe’s leaders gathered in Brussels at the end of June, they decided to break the ‘vicious circle’ between bust banks and the countries that host them. Otherwise, the fear was that its banks could bring down Spain much as happened in Ireland.

Importantly, and in line with long-standing EU practice, it was agreed that favorable terms applied to Spain would be applied retrospectively to Ireland. Moreover, the Irish bailout was to be looked at with a view to ‘improving its sustainability’, recognizing implicitly that it was not on a sustainable path as things stood.

The agreement was hailed as a ‘game changer’ by some, a ‘seismic shift’ by others, and universally as at least a step in the right direction. Partly in expectation of a deal on its bank debt, Irish benchmark borrowing rates have fallen below 5% to levels not seen since before the 2010 bailout. Continue reading

Where to now for austerity?

As silly season gives way to budget season, Irish citizens and politicians alike are confronted with the depressing reality that not much has changed since they last checked: the economy is flatlined, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and the government is still borrowing more than a billion euro per month.

When Francois Hollande was elected President of France in May, a Gallic counterweight to German intransigence promised an alternative to austerity in Europe. Growth seemed to be very much on the agenda.

This spring-time optimism has given way to the cold, hard reality of Autumn. Measures to stimulate economic growth have been welcome, but in short supply. The Eurozone economy is mired in recession. Europe’s core and periphery alike will get little respite from the painful process of reducing budget deficits, even as economies shrink. More than ever, the growth agenda needs to be front and centre. Continue reading

A Progressive Role for Public Pension Funds?

Perhaps the single best decision made by Charlie McCreevy as Minister for Finance was the establishment in 2001 of the National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF). In addition to proceeds from privatizing Eircom, 1% of GNP was to be channeled annually into an investment fund dedicated to financing public service pensions from 2025 onwards.

Not only was the NPRF a sensible exercise in counter-cyclical fiscal policy, – in marked contrast to the habitual “If I have it, I spend it.” approach – it was a hefty down-payment on the otherwise unfunded public service pension liability.

Unfortunately, the best laid economic plans didn’t survive contact with Ireland’s world-beating banking crisis, the final bill for which will likely come in between a third and half of current national income. Continue reading

Dear Prudence, won’t you open up your eyes?

If one accepts the definition of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results, then surely re-doubling belt-tightening austerity, and expecting growth, is economic lunacy?

The only part of the Irish economy that is growing in any meaningful sense is our record-breaking trade surplus. Overall, the economy can only grow if this is enough to offset the opposing contractionary forces of fiscal austerity and inconspicuous consumption. Continue reading

“Where’s My Bailout?”

“It’s the economy stupid” was the maxim that propelled Bill Clinton to office in 1992. Clinton is a big believer in Ireland’s recovery story, but when he visited last year his chief caveat was on personal debt.

With what must have sounded like music to the ears of the many Irish people drowning in debt, he said that writing down personal debt more aggressively would speed recovery. Many activists and economists are in agreement on this, and the IMF recently weighed in with its support. Continue reading

2012: Global Recovery or False Dawn?

It’s not just the warm winter or early spring – the global economy really is looking brighter now than in the dark days of November.

US growth has been accelerating, unemployment falling, and Obama’s re-election chances improving. The EU appears to have gotten a handle on its debt crisis, for now, and a spiral from Recession to Depression has been averted. Continue reading

Europe’s Unholy Trinity

‘You Can’t Always Get What You Want’ sang the Rolling Stones in 1969. Jagger wasn’t singing about economic policy, but it’s a sentiment felt keenly by policy-makers the world over. They often face difficult choices between conflicting objectives.

Dani Rodrik, political economy professor at Harvard, has described an ‘inescapable trilemma’ at the heart of the world economy: we can have two of democracy, national sovereignty and open markets – but not all three fully and simultaneously.

As Europe’s elite desperately searches for a solution to stave off economic Armageddon, they face a similar trilemma. Technocrats’ assumption of power in Greece and Italy are cases in point. Continue reading

Euro Treaty to Save Monetary Union?

Writing in this column two months ago, I suggested that Treaty change would be needed to save the Euro. Where once such talk was taboo, it is now clear that we are faced with such constitutional change, irrespective of the UK position. A real fiscal union would involve transfers to those regions for whom a one-size-fits-all monetary policy is inappropriate. What is in prospect is not a fiscal union, however, but an austerity club.

European leaders have finally realized the need for bold reform, but they’ve completely missed the point. The Eurozone crisis is less about members’ debts, and more about their competitiveness. Continue reading