Brexit and Covid have dominated headlines – and politicians’ preoccupations – at different times over the past decade. Health is a perennial concern. Referenda on same-sex marriage and abortion passed overwhelmingly. But, it doesn’t seem controversial to say that housing is the defining political issue of our times. This perma-crisis is unlikely to improve before the next general election.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 22 May 2023 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Ireland
The Irish, European and global economies have proved more resilient this year than many economists had feared. Yes, stubbornly high inflation has sapped consumers’ spending power. Yes, economic activity has slowed in the face of higher interest rates and lingering effects of the war in Ukraine. Yes, there was a wobble in the banking sector on both sides of the Atlantic, and we still don’t know how that will affect credit availability. But, there is little sign of the feared recession. Yet.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 1 May 2023 ***
Continue readingWhat a difference a few weeks makes. Coming into the year, there was doom and gloom about economic prospects for 2023. But, the mood music seems to be changing.
Economic growth is holding up. Inflation continues to trend lower. Job markets remain strong. Energy armageddon was avoided. China’s economy is re-opening after ditching its zero-Covid policy. Forecasters like the IMF and EU Commission are beginning to revise up their predictions for growth this year. And, Ireland is still in a far better position than many European countries.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 26 February 2023 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Euro, Ireland
People are angry. The failures of capitalism are the cause. The failure of democracy itself could be the result. These are the central themes of two new books, one by US senator Bernie Sanders and the other by Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf. Sanders is a self-professed democratic socialist; Wolf is a lead contributor to one of the world’s foremost financial periodicals. One might assume they’d agree on very little. One would be wrong.
*** A version of this book review was first published in The Irish Times on 18 February 2023 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for Irish Times, Book reviews, Euro, Global, Ireland
The ‘R’ word is being bandied about a lot these days. Is Ireland really headed for recession? And, does it matter?
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 31 December 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Ireland
Through lack of understanding of macroeconomics and financial markets, a new UK government turns a fiscal and political challenge into a financial crisis, leading to an austerity-driven humanitarian catastrophe. The year is 1847, not 2022.
This is the core argument of Cambridge historian Charles Read’s The Great Famine in Ireland and Britain’s Financial Crisis. By exploring private correspondence of leading policymakers of the day and highlighting discrepancies with their public statements and historical perceptions, the author interrogates their underlying motivations. In the process, he nails a number of established myths.
*** A version of this book review was first published in The Irish Times on 29 December 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for Irish Times, Book reviews, Ireland
On the face of it, Budget 2023 was a giveaway of epic proportions. There was something for everyone. Tax cuts, welfare increases, childcare subsidies, reduced student fees, an end to hospital charges and energy cost supports for businesses and households. These were just some of the plethora of attention-grabbing measures announced.
But, what the government appears to have given with one hand, rising prices will more than take away with the other. According to the government’s own economic projections, consumer prices will have increased by 16% between the beginning of 2022 and the end of 2023. Budget measures will help cushion that blow to purchasing power, but for too many people on the margins it won’t be enough. Everyone will feel the pinch, and more people will be pushed into poverty.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 28 September 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Ireland
Sometimes good news is bad news. News a month out from your annual budget announcement that the public coffers were brimming with unanticipated largesse was the last thing Paschal Donohue will have wanted to hear. Why?
The natural and understandable inclination of any Irish finance minister, and of the Department at their back, is to be conservative, to guard jealously the public purse strings and to manage downwards the expectations of both colleagues and punters. Someone has to take away the punch bowl before the party gets out of hand. This is an inclination inherited a century ago from His Majesty’s Treasury, the so-called ’Treasury view’.
A year ago, the Irish government was expecting an €8.3bn for 2022. As things stand now, we are on course for the largest annual surplus since at least 2006, largely due to gravity-defying corporation tax receipts.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 25 September 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Ireland
Reported homelessness is at a record high. Unreported homelessness is rampant. Around 50,000 Ukrainian refugees are in emergency shelter. The shortage of student accommodation seems worse than ever despite all the recent investment in that sector. Demand for rental properties races ahead, but supply is at a record low. Surging rents, sub-standard accommodation and insecure tenure are a huge source of stress, anxiety and frustration, and our still-dysfunctional housing market is largely to blame.
When detailed results of the 2021 Census are published, well over half a million households are likely to be in rented accommodation, about a third of the total and rising. While these are concentrated in younger age cohorts, around 1 in 4 householders in their 40’s are in rented accommodation, and this share is also likely to rise as ‘generation rent’ ages. About 1 in 7 renters are estimated to be renting by choice, but the vast majority would rather be owners.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 19 September 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Ireland
Wholesale gas prices are off the charts in Europe, leading to surging costs to light and heat our homes. Urgent policy action is needed, both in Brussels and in Dublin, if we are to avoid social chaos this Winter. Recent murmurings from leaders in both cities suggest they appreciate the urgency, and that help is on the way. EU energy ministers hold an emergency meeting this Thursday to discuss while preparations continue ahead of Ireland’s budget day on 27 September. Consumers need a break before energy prices break their backs.
Even before the latest round of prices rises, a record 29% of Irish families were already facing energy poverty. That number is now nearing half, and rising. For people already forced to tighten their belts, calls to turn down the heating or wear another jumper aren’t likely to land well. Certainly, steps can be taken to conserve energy but there are limits to what is reasonable in the short-term.
How did it come to this?
It’s all about gas. Russia was the source of 45% of EU gas imports in 2021. But, retaliation for Europe’s support of Ukraine in repelling Russian invaders has seen these supplies reduced to a trickle, causing prices to sky-rocket.
*** This article was first published at thejournal.ie on 6 September 2022 ***
Continue readingPosted in Articles for thejournal.ie, Euro, Ireland, Political Risk
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