LIKE A SUNNY spell sandwiched between snowstorms, the number crunchers at our Central Statistics Office published their own blizzard of economic data recently.
The headline numbers are nearly too good to be true: at 7.8%, GDP growth last year was comfortably the highest in Europe, and ahead even of India, which has leap-frogged China as the fastest-growing big economy in recent years.
Strong growth helped generate nearly 1,300 new jobs per week during 2017. This meant that by the end of the year the total number of people in work was within touching distance of the two-and-a-quarter million peak hit in late-2007. Cue cries that the lost decade is over. These are neither lies, nor damned lies: just statistics.
*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 26 March, 2018 ***
A hundred years from now, catastrophic climate change may have completely changed the way our children and grandchildren live, work and farm. Possible doomsday scenarios include a shutdown of the Gulf Stream, which Ireland depends on for its relatively mild weather, leading to another ice age.
The science is incontrovertible. Global warming is man-made, and emissions of carbon and other gases are the main culprit. Sure, Ireland makes up only a small amount of total emissions. Because of its size, China alone accounts for more than a quarter of all emissions annually. The US, another 15%. But, we rank highly in emissions per person, and total emissions are going in the wrong direction, up 3.5% in 2016 when the government is targeting a 5% reduction.
While the worst environmental impacts of climate change might still be some way off, we could be facing a bill of nearly half a billion euro every year from 2020 onwards unless we get our house in order. As part of European and global efforts to reduce emissions, we have committed to a reduction of 20% (from 1990 levels) by 2020. Ireland is one of the few EU countries on course to miss its target, leaving itself open to annual fines equivalent to widening the standard income tax band by €2,500 or building 2,500 social houses.
So, what to do? Continue reading
PEOPLE LIKE TO have something to look forward to. That’s why, even in the dark days of December, people look forward to ringing in the New Year, full of new possibilities.
They may call economics the ‘dismal science’, but even economists are not immune to looking for silver linings among the winter clouds. So, what’s in store for the Irish economy in 2018, I hear you ask?
*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 22 December, 2017 ***
Since time immemorial, young people have grown up in the anticipation that they will live a life at least as comfortable as that of their parents – that the next generation will reap the benefits of social, economic and technological progress. This is at the foundation of the social contract between generations, not just in Ireland, but across Europe and around the world.
But, something has changed.
Next generation can expect to work harder for less.
Generation Y, the so-called millennials, born since 1980, may be the first generation for whom this dream turns out to be a mirage. Long-term demographic trends, coupled with the long-term slowdown in productivity growth in developed countries, mean that the social escalator of yesteryear has broken down.
But, the real tipping point came with, and since, the 2008 financial crisis. Youth unemployment soared across Europe. In Ireland, mass emigration made a comeback as many who graduated from school or college – or lost their jobs in construction-related trades – saw few prospects at home.
Rather than helping, public policy often makes things worse.
*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 30 September, 2017 ***
After months, if not years, of shadow boxing, the Fine Gael leadership race was less Game of Thrones, and more Mad Max. Two men entered, one man leads. Realistically, there was only ever going to be one winner.
In some ways, the new Age of Leo bears all the hallmarks of what came before. His swift and seemingly inevitable ascent to the throne was a decade-long masterclass in media management and the projection of a political image. Ever-ready with a pithy soundbite, if light on Ministerial accomplishment, it was a true triumph of style over substance.
That is not to say that the Taoiseach is devoid of substance. Far from it. In fact, recognising Paddy’s scepticism of ‘ologies and isms’, he has become adept at using the dog-whistle, where once he would have blown the fog-horn. Where once he whipped up a frenzy of opposition to the sale of methadone in his local chemist or openly invited immigrants to self-deport, his recent leadership campaign was aimed at ‘people who get up early in the morning’. He has learned over the years to cloak his hard-right instincts in language that is populist and palatable. This is Leonomics: Reaganomics with Irish characteristics.
Watching Ireland’s housing crisis unfold has been like watching a slow-motion car crash.
Surging numbers of rough sleepers around our cities were an early sign, shortly after the economic crisis struck. As job losses mounted, and wage cuts began to bite, more and more people struggled to pay their mortgage and keep a roof over their family’s heads.
Meanwhile, the shutdown in house-building was storing up problems for the future. Chronic shortages in housing supply have sent rents surpass their boom-time peaks, while house prices have increased by half since they bottomed out four years ago. Record numbers of families are forced to stay in hotels or in emergency accommodation. Some have had to resort to sleeping in their cars or putting themselves at the mercy of the local Garda station.
*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 29 June, 2017 ***
Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump made his ‘big announcement’ on tax cuts. Some Irish eyes aren’t smiling at the prospect of the headline-grabbing reduction in the corporation tax rate from 35% to 15% actually coming to pass. Essentially, though, this latest announcement amounts to little more than reheated campaign promises, washed down with Trump’s now-familiar saccharine bombast.
This was not a well-thought out exercise in policy innovation, but rather a cheap PR stunt designed to boost his flagging ratings and attract plaudits ahead of the media-constructed – but substantially meaningless – landmark of his Presidency’s first 100 days, which falls this Saturday.
*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 27 April, 2017 ***
OECD Corporation Tax Rates since 2000
Source: Tax Policy Reforms in the OECD 2016