Category Archives: Ireland

Lessons for Ireland from Obama’s Jobs Plan

Barack Obama knows that his 2012 re-election chances may hinge on his ability to tackle unemployment which has remained stubbornly above 9%. With the US purse strings in the vice-grip of a US Congress controlled by a Republican Party with a deficit fetish, he knows better than to expect help from this quarter.

If more fiscal stimulus is impossible, whether because of real funding constraints, as in Ireland, or because of purely political constraints, as in the US, then the next best approach is to get more bang from the government buck. It is this concept, formally known as the ‘balanced budget multiplier’, that underpins President Obama’s latest jobs plan. Continue reading

Is Default the Default Option?

Sovereign default is a political choice. There is no specific tipping point where a country’s debt becomes economically unsustainable, and default inevitable.

Market perception of default risk, as measured by the interest rate charged, is determined by a country’s track record in servicing its debts as well as by the size of its debt, the size of its economy, and the rate at which both are growing.

Unlike people, countries never repay their debts; they just roll them over.  In this way, a country can theoretically support a very large national debt, so long as the bond market is willing to lend at a manageable interest rate. Continue reading