The Transatlantic Economy’s Summer of Discontent

Much of the orthodox analysis of the West’s recent economic travails puts the blame squarely on a failure of political leadership.

Reality requires a more complex narrative.

Yes, the US came inexcusably close to committing hari kari by failing to lift its debt ceiling with a balanced, timely, comprehensive programme for long term fiscal sustainability.

Yes, the European Union struggles to deal with the fallout from the inherent contradictions at the heart of its monetary union.

Certainly, political failure doesn’t help lift the pervading sense of crisis, and the uncertainty it breeds contributes to financial market volatility, but it is market failure, not political failure, that is at the root of our economic malaise.

In short, the West’s growth model is broken. Continue reading

Is Default the Default Option?

Sovereign default is a political choice. There is no specific tipping point where a country’s debt becomes economically unsustainable, and default inevitable.

Market perception of default risk, as measured by the interest rate charged, is determined by a country’s track record in servicing its debts as well as by the size of its debt, the size of its economy, and the rate at which both are growing.

Unlike people, countries never repay their debts; they just roll them over.  In this way, a country can theoretically support a very large national debt, so long as the bond market is willing to lend at a manageable interest rate. Continue reading

The Left Must Find Its Voice

Book Review – Ill Fares The Land by Tony Judt

Tony Judt is perhaps best known for ‘Postwar’, the encyclopaedic survey of European history since 1945 which cemented his status among the world’s most eminent historians.

Today, wracked by the same motor-neurone affliction as Stephen Hawking, Judt is confined to dictating his thoughts to an assistant at NYU where he is Professor of European Studies. While his body may be weakened, however, his mind remains piercing, engaging and energetic.

In ‘Postwar’, Judt explored what he called the ‘Social Democratic Moment’, the grand societal bargain which allowed Europe to rebuild from the wreckage of a devastating world war and the Great Depression which preceded it. Continue reading